Basketball

2011-2012 NBA Season Projections

Dec 24th

	Wins	Losses
ATL	34.5	31.5
BOS	40	26
CHA	22	44
CHI	48.5	17.5
CLE	19.5	46.5
DAL	41	25
DEN	34	32
DET	23	43
GSW	32.5	33.5
HOU	30.5	35.5
IND	35	31
LAC	42	24
LAL	36	30
MEM	37	29
MIA	53	13
MIL	31	35
MIN	27.5	38.5
NJN	22	44
NOH	24	42
NYK	38	28
OKC	44	22
ORL	41	23
PHI	34	32
PHO	29	37
POR	37	29
SAC	25	41
SAS	37.5	28.5
TOR	21.5	44.5
UTA	28.5	37.5
WAS	20.5	45.5

Wayne Winston Finals Prediction Result

Jun 13th

Posted by brent in Basketball

Back on May 27th, Wayne Winston, writer of Mathletics, predicted the Mavs should be favored and would win the series. Most people in the USA were rooting for the Mavs, but few really put them as a 65% favorite.
Link

Joel Anthony Plus Minus

May 3rd

Posted by brent in Basketball

An interesting observation…

Joel Anthony currently has the highest +/- ranking in the NBA playoffs at +50.85, however he has an adjusted +/- of -6.67 (error of 5.19).

Those seem like 2 very conflicting stats from the APBRmetric community.

Stats from basketballvalue

NBA Christmas Projections Review

Jan 1st

Posted by dudeimstoked in Basketball

Review of the projections found here: Post

Accurately projected the winner/loser of 4 of the 5 games. Not too bad for a first shot. Need to work on the total points scored by each team as we seem to be on the low side of each of the games.

Christmas NBA Projections

Dec 24th

Posted by dudeimstoked in Basketball

Here our the “official” projections for the NBA games on Christmas. We’ll see how accurate we are…

Chicago 94.5
New York 99

Boston 91.5
Orlando 92

Miami 95
Los Angeles 96

Denver 99.5
Oklahoma City 102

Portland 93
Golden State 96

These were generated quickly through a spreadsheet without taking into account injuries or any other recent news/trades. Some initial thoughts are the POR/GS total points look very low. Also, we’re projecting a lot of very close games, we’ll have to look into the formula and tune up the system.

10 Game Update

Nov 15th

Posted by dudeimstoked in Analysis

It is roughly 10 games through the 2011 NBA season. How are teams doing? Using Pythagorean Expectation we calculated the projected records for the season thus far, compared with actual results.

Here are the current records:

Team	Pythag W	Pythag L	Wins	Losses	Difference
Atlanta Hawks	6.5	4.5	7	4	0.5
Boston Celtics	6.8	3.2	8	2	1.2
Charlotte Bobcats	4	6	3	7	-1
Chicago Bulls	5.2	2.8	5	3	-0.2
Cleveland Cavaliers	3.3	5.7	4	5	0.7
Dallas Mavericks	5.6	2.4	6	2	0.4
Denver Nuggets	5.1	3.9	5	4	-0.1
Detroit Pistons	3.5	6.5	4	6	0.5
Golden State Warriors	4.4	5.6	6	4	1.6
Houston Rockets	4.5	4.5	3	6	-1.5
Indiana Pacers	4.5	3.5	4	4	-0.5
Los Angeles Clippers	2.3	7.7	1	9	-1.3
Los Angeles Lakers	7.6	2.4	8	2	0.4
Memphis Grizzlies	4.1	5.9	4	6	-0.1
Miami Heat	7.9	2.1	6	4	-1.9
Milwaukee Bucks	6	4	5	5	-1
Minnesota Timberwolves	2.2	8.8	3	8	0.8
New Jersey Nets	3.1	5.9	3	6	-0.1
New Orleans Hornets	6.4	1.6	8	0	1.6
New York Knicks	3.9	6.1	3	7	-0.9
Oklahoma City Thunder	3.3	5.7	5	4	1.7
Orlando Magic	6.4	2.6	6	3	-0.4
Philadelphia 76ers	3.8	6.2	2	8	-1.8
Phoenix Suns	4.8	4.2	5	4	0.2
Portland Trailblazers	6.1	4.9	6	5	-0.1
Sacramento Kings	2.9	6.1	3	6	0.1
San Antonio Spurs	6.6	2.4	8	1	1.4
Toronto Raptors	3.7	6.3	2	8	-1.7
Utah Jazz	5.4	4.6	7	3	1.6
Washington Wizards	1.9	6.1	2	6	0.1

More >

Is Quantitative Analysis of the NBA (APBRmetrics) Dead?

Nov 6th

Posted by brent in Basketball

This is an old article, but Mark Cuban posted some thoughts on his blog basically saying that quantitative analysis of the NBA is dead because it’s all about chemistry and coaching.

Link

Any thoughts? We obviously don’t think so at apbrmetrics.com…