It is roughly 10 games through the 2011 NBA season. How are teams doing? Using Pythagorean Expectation we calculated the projected records for the season thus far, compared with actual results.

Here are the current records:

Team Pythag W Pythag L Wins Losses Difference
Atlanta Hawks 6.5 4.5 7 4 0.5
Boston Celtics 6.8 3.2 8 2 1.2
Charlotte Bobcats 4 6 3 7 -1
Chicago Bulls 5.2 2.8 5 3 -0.2
Cleveland Cavaliers 3.3 5.7 4 5 0.7
Dallas Mavericks 5.6 2.4 6 2 0.4
Denver Nuggets 5.1 3.9 5 4 -0.1
Detroit Pistons 3.5 6.5 4 6 0.5
Golden State Warriors 4.4 5.6 6 4 1.6
Houston Rockets 4.5 4.5 3 6 -1.5
Indiana Pacers 4.5 3.5 4 4 -0.5
Los Angeles Clippers 2.3 7.7 1 9 -1.3
Los Angeles Lakers 7.6 2.4 8 2 0.4
Memphis Grizzlies 4.1 5.9 4 6 -0.1
Miami Heat 7.9 2.1 6 4 -1.9
Milwaukee Bucks 6 4 5 5 -1
Minnesota Timberwolves 2.2 8.8 3 8 0.8
New Jersey Nets 3.1 5.9 3 6 -0.1
New Orleans Hornets 6.4 1.6 8 0 1.6
New York Knicks 3.9 6.1 3 7 -0.9
Oklahoma City Thunder 3.3 5.7 5 4 1.7
Orlando Magic 6.4 2.6 6 3 -0.4
Philadelphia 76ers 3.8 6.2 2 8 -1.8
Phoenix Suns 4.8 4.2 5 4 0.2
Portland Trailblazers 6.1 4.9 6 5 -0.1
Sacramento Kings 2.9 6.1 3 6 0.1
San Antonio Spurs 6.6 2.4 8 1 1.4
Toronto Raptors 3.7 6.3 2 8 -1.7
Utah Jazz 5.4 4.6 7 3 1.6
Washington Wizards 1.9 6.1 2 6 0.1


Ranked by most “overachieving” to least

Team Pythag W Pythag L Wins Losses Difference
Oklahoma City Thunder 3.3 5.7 5 4 1.7
Golden State Warriors 4.4 5.6 6 4 1.6
New Orleans Hornets 6.4 1.6 8 0 1.6
Utah Jazz 5.4 4.6 7 3 1.6
San Antonio Spurs 6.6 2.4 8 1 1.4
Boston Celtics 6.8 3.2 8 2 1.2
Minnesota Timberwolves 2.2 8.8 3 8 0.8
Cleveland Cavaliers 3.3 5.7 4 5 0.7
Atlanta Hawks 6.5 4.5 7 4 0.5
Detroit Pistons 3.5 6.5 4 6 0.5
Dallas Mavericks 5.6 2.4 6 2 0.4
Los Angeles Lakers 7.6 2.4 8 2 0.4
Phoenix Suns 4.8 4.2 5 4 0.2
Sacramento Kings 2.9 6.1 3 6 0.1
Washington Wizards 1.9 6.1 2 6 0.1
Denver Nuggets 5.1 3.9 5 4 -0.1
Memphis Grizzlies 4.1 5.9 4 6 -0.1
Portland Trailblazers 6.1 4.9 6 5 -0.1
New Jersey Nets 3.1 5.9 3 6 -0.1
Chicago Bulls 5.2 2.8 5 3 -0.2
Orlando Magic 6.4 2.6 6 3 -0.4
Indiana Pacers 4.5 3.5 4 4 -0.5
New York Knicks 3.9 6.1 3 7 -0.9
Charlotte Bobcats 4 6 3 7 -1
Milwaukee Bucks 6 4 5 5 -1
Los Angeles Clippers 2.3 7.7 1 9 -1.3
Houston Rockets 4.5 4.5 3 6 -1.5
Toronto Raptors 3.7 6.3 2 8 -1.7
Philadelphia 76ers 3.8 6.2 2 8 -1.8
Miami Heat 7.9 2.1 6 4 -1.9

Most Surprising: The Oklahoma City Thunder. This year’s “Western Conference Sleeper” by many analysts, are actually overachieving this year through 10 with a 5-4 record.