APBRmetrics
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2011-2012 NBA Season Projections
Dec 24th
| Wins | Losses | |
| ATL |
34.5 |
31.5 |
| BOS |
40 |
26 |
| CHA |
22 |
44 |
| CHI |
48.5 |
17.5 |
| CLE |
19.5 |
46.5 |
| DAL |
41 |
25 |
| DEN |
34 |
32 |
| DET |
23 |
43 |
| GSW |
32.5 |
33.5 |
| HOU |
30.5 |
35.5 |
| IND |
35 |
31 |
| LAC |
42 |
24 |
| LAL |
36 |
30 |
| MEM |
37 |
29 |
| MIA |
53 |
13 |
| MIL |
31 |
35 |
| MIN |
27.5 |
38.5 |
| NJN |
22 |
44 |
| NOH |
24 |
42 |
| NYK |
38 |
28 |
| OKC |
44 |
22 |
| ORL |
41 |
23 |
| PHI |
34 |
32 |
| PHO |
29 |
37 |
| POR |
37 |
29 |
| SAC |
25 |
41 |
| SAS |
37.5 |
28.5 |
| TOR |
21.5 |
44.5 |
| UTA |
28.5 |
37.5 |
| WAS |
20.5 |
45.5 |
APBRmetrics Forum
Oct 15th
The APBRmetrics forum has moved. It can now be found at: http://apbr.org/metrics/
New APBRMetrics Forum
Oct 7th
The best APBRMetrics forum at sonics central on the web for some reason is down, so we started a new one here at APBRMetrics.com. If there is interest, we will keep it running and maintain it. If not, we’ll shut it down.
Please give us your feedback on what you think about the forum. It’s super simple and clean, but if you’d prefer a full feature forum like phpbb, then that can be arranged as well.
Unfortunately, since we did not run the old forum, you will have to register here to post.
Wayne Winston Finals Prediction Result
Jun 13th
Back on May 27th, Wayne Winston, writer of Mathletics
Link
Joel Anthony Plus Minus
May 3rd
An interesting observation…
Joel Anthony currently has the highest +/- ranking in the NBA playoffs at +50.85, however he has an adjusted +/- of -6.67 (error of 5.19).
Those seem like 2 very conflicting stats from the APBRmetric community.
Stats from basketballvalue
NBA Christmas Projections Review
Jan 1st
Review of the projections found here: Post
Accurately projected the winner/loser of 4 of the 5 games. Not too bad for a first shot. Need to work on the total points scored by each team as we seem to be on the low side of each of the games.
Christmas NBA Projections
Dec 24th
Here our the “official” projections for the NBA games on Christmas. We’ll see how accurate we are…
Chicago 94.5
New York 99
Boston 91.5
Orlando 92
Miami 95
Los Angeles 96
Denver 99.5
Oklahoma City 102
Portland 93
Golden State 96
These were generated quickly through a spreadsheet without taking into account injuries or any other recent news/trades. Some initial thoughts are the POR/GS total points look very low. Also, we’re projecting a lot of very close games, we’ll have to look into the formula and tune up the system.
10 Game Update
Nov 15th
It is roughly 10 games through the 2011 NBA season. How are teams doing? Using Pythagorean Expectation we calculated the projected records for the season thus far, compared with actual results.
Here are the current records:
| Team | Pythag W | Pythag L | Wins | Losses | Difference |
| Atlanta Hawks | 6.5 | 4.5 | 7 | 4 | 0.5 |
| Boston Celtics | 6.8 | 3.2 | 8 | 2 | 1.2 |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -1 |
| Chicago Bulls | 5.2 | 2.8 | 5 | 3 | -0.2 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4 | 5 | 0.7 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 5.6 | 2.4 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Denver Nuggets | 5.1 | 3.9 | 5 | 4 | -0.1 |
| Detroit Pistons | 3.5 | 6.5 | 4 | 6 | 0.5 |
| Golden State Warriors | 4.4 | 5.6 | 6 | 4 | 1.6 |
| Houston Rockets | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 6 | -1.5 |
| Indiana Pacers | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 4 | -0.5 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 2.3 | 7.7 | 1 | 9 | -1.3 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 7.6 | 2.4 | 8 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4 | 6 | -0.1 |
| Miami Heat | 7.9 | 2.1 | 6 | 4 | -1.9 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 2.2 | 8.8 | 3 | 8 | 0.8 |
| New Jersey Nets | 3.1 | 5.9 | 3 | 6 | -0.1 |
| New Orleans Hornets | 6.4 | 1.6 | 8 | 0 | 1.6 |
| New York Knicks | 3.9 | 6.1 | 3 | 7 | -0.9 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5 | 4 | 1.7 |
| Orlando Magic | 6.4 | 2.6 | 6 | 3 | -0.4 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 3.8 | 6.2 | 2 | 8 | -1.8 |
| Phoenix Suns | 4.8 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 | 0.2 |
| Portland Trailblazers | 6.1 | 4.9 | 6 | 5 | -0.1 |
| Sacramento Kings | 2.9 | 6.1 | 3 | 6 | 0.1 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 6.6 | 2.4 | 8 | 1 | 1.4 |
| Toronto Raptors | 3.7 | 6.3 | 2 | 8 | -1.7 |
| Utah Jazz | 5.4 | 4.6 | 7 | 3 | 1.6 |
| Washington Wizards | 1.9 | 6.1 | 2 | 6 | 0.1 |